Recent rise in Coups D’état in Africa. Any concerns for Nigeria?
The rise in the number of coups d’état in Africa, especially in the West Africa subregion, has generated concerns about a return to the era of forceful takeovers and military rule in Africa. Nigeria has had it’s own share of coups in the past along with many years of military leadership. Hence, there are valid concerns that this wave of coups in Africa could get to Nigeria.
“ Coup d’état, also called coup, the sudden, violent overthrow of an existing government by a small group.”
On Tuesday, 1st of February, 2022, there was an attempted coup in Guinea Bissau. About 9 days before that, there was a successful coup d’état in Burkina Faso. Both countries are in the West African subregion under the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) bloc. Other ECOWAS countries, like Mali and Guinea, have experienced similar coup d’état in recent months, and that has forced the ECOWAS body to suspend these countries from the group and to impose other sanctions.
The year 2021 saw more coups than previous years ( Are military takeovers on the rise in Africa? — BBC News). And it seems 2022 is on course to be worse than 2021.
After the coups that took place in Guinea and Mali last year, the Nigerian Government indicated that West Africa have outgrown military coups.( Buhari Reacts To Rising Military Coups In African Countries, Calls For Sanctions | Sahara Reporters) The Nigerian President, Muhammadu Buhari, is quoted as saying in recent times that “Nigeria has gone passed the stage of military takeovers”. ( Buhari condemns Coup in Guinea-Bissau — Businessday NG) However, not everyone share the confidence and optimism of the President. There are reasons why Nigeria should be concerned:
(1) History repeating itself. The writer George Santayana once wrote that ‘those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it’. African countries have a long history of coup d’état. Take a look at the map👇 and you will find out that the countries having coups in recent times have had several coup in the past, and the circumstances and events that led to those earlier coups are still playing out today. Nigeria is right among those countries with the most coups in Africa, and what’s past is prologue; that’s a cause for concern.
(2) Regional Domino effect. Another factor is geography. You will notice that many of the countries with the most number of coups share contiguous borders. The region is called the Sahel.
“The Sahel, the vast semi-arid region of Africa separating the Sahara Desert to the north and tropical savannas to the south, is as much a land of opportunities as it is of challenges. Although it has abundant human and natural resources, offering tremendous potential for rapid growth, there are deep-rooted challenges-environmental, political and security- that may affect the prosperity and peace of the Sahel.”
The Sahel region boasts of large natural resources and teeming populations, but it has enormous economic, social and security challenges. The close proximity of these countries and the ease of movement of people between ECOWAS States, ensures that what may be happening in one country can easily spread to other countries. Thus, Guinea and Mali last year, and then Burkina Faso and Guinea Bissau this year! Could this domino effect get to Nigeria?
(3) Regional Insecurity. The Sahel region share similar security challenges. The fall of the Libyan Government and regional instability and unrests have created ungoverned spaces and the flow of weapons leading to or boosting insurgency, militias, and such groups. The military and security forces in the Sahel region have been worn out due to prolonged fighting with insurgent groups. There are complaints from the rank-and-file of fighting soldiers that the Governments have not done enough to provide them with the weapons they need and good welfare package that they deserve. These resentments can easily be exploited by ambitious military commanders to mount a coup.
(4) Economic Hardships; Civil Unrests/protests. The security challenges of the Sahel region coupled with the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and unfavorable weather conditions (such as drought) have worsened the economic indices of these countries. Rising inflation rates, youth unemployment, lack of basic amenities, etc. fuel social dissent. Some of these countries witnessed large street protests in the weeks and months preceding the coup. The coup leaders take advantage of widespread public resentment against the political class in power, and they are encouraged when people troop out to celebrate them on the streets when the coups are successful. Nigeria has experienced recent protests on issues of police brutality and rising insecurity. It is not inconceivable that these agitations and unrest may yet continue in the future and that could lead to people seeking alternatives to the status quo.
(6) Overreliance on the military. In Nigeria, there is the tendency to rely too much on the military. The military are invited even in matters that fall under the sphere of the Nigeria Police Force and other non-military agencies. Calling on the military to be involved in settling civil disputes and protests gives the impression that military intervention is the sole remedy in time of crises.
(7) Overconfidence of the civilian leadership and the political class. There are warning signs that precede military coups. The overconfidence or the nonchalance of the ruling class and political elites makes them not to take heed to those warnings. They forgot that history could well repeat itself. There is nothing as potent as saying that ‘it has never happened before and thus it will never happen’. But, once something has happened in the past, surely it can happen again. It’s like sports. A team that has never lost is the most formidable team. But, once that team loses, that aura of invisibility crumples and more losses will surely follow.
Nonetheless, there are also reasons why Nigeria may not be too bothered
- Nigeria is a vast and diverse country. Unlike other countries in the Sahel, Nigeria is a much bigger country. Nigeria is the most populous Black Nation on earth. It has the 32nd largest landmass (of countries) in the world. It is culturally diverse. A German researcher, Erkan Gören, ranked Nigeria as the 3rd most culturally diverse country in the world after Chad and Cameroun. Most Diverse Countries 2022 (worldpopulationreview.com). As a result, different regions in the country have disparate interests, and actions taken by one group can easily be interpreted in line with ethno-religious undercurrents and bias. Apart from sports and things involving National pride abroad, there is hardly any issue that has an overwhelming consensus. So, it’s an herculean task, especially in the modern era of advanced technology, for a handful of people to forcibly takeover the Government.
- History of failed coup in the past. Not all coup plots succeed. And those who lead failed coup attempts usually suffer enormous consequences. The alleged and perceived supporters of the coup plotters suffer too. The cause of the Nigerian Civil War can be traced back to the fallout of the January 1966 coup. Another spectacularly failed coup was the Gideon Orkar coup of 1990.
- History of military rule in Nigeria. Not everyone in Nigeria is sold on the idea that military rule was necessarily better than civilian rule. Some trace the root causes of the current challenges Nigeria is facing to the coups/counter-coups and military rulership that took place in the past.
Finally, let me repeat the famous quote:
“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it”
Originally published at http://eugeneojirigho.wordpress.com on February 5, 2022.